"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting wh

"Expert" AI forecasters are actually really good at predicting developments 'internal' to AI, like progress on model benchmarks, but pretty bad at predicting what AI's real-world impact will be (and when it will show up). @​thestalwart and @​johncoogan: [▻](https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/2…